Midterm elections are the elections that
occur, literally, in the middle of a president’s 4-year term.
On the ballot for every midterm: all 435
U.S. House seats, one-third of U.S. senate seats (along with any special
elections due to a vacancy), 39 out of 50 governorships (note: Vermont and New
Hampshire elect governors every 2 years), and most state legislatures.
These elections are usually a referendum
on the president’s popularity. If he is unpopular, his party will almost
certainly lose seats. In fact, most midterm elections do see gains from the
opposite party, though the scale of those gains can vary. It can be anywhere
from single-digit losses all the way to massive “wave” elections. There is no
set standard for what constitutes a wave election, but most people tend to think
it involves flipping at least 20 house seats and more than a couple of senate
seats. Some examples of midterm waves include: 2010 (Republicans gain 63 seats
after backlash to Obama and his health care plan), 2006 (Democrats +30 in
reaction to the unpopular Bush and the continuing Iraq quagmire), and 1994
(Republicans +54 in opposition to Clinton, regaining control of the house for
the first time in 4 decades).
A president’s party gaining seats during
a midterm is a rarity, but indeed it has happened twice, back to back, quite
recently. In 1998, Democrats gained a few seats, possibly due to Republicans’
talk of impeaching Clinton. And in 2002, Republicans gained 8 seats as the
shadow of 9/11 still loomed large and Bush was preparing for the invasion of Iraq.
Prior to that, you need to go all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt’s first
midterm in 1934 to find a president who gained seats in the middle of his term.
One of the problems of midterms is there
is not a president on the ticket to draw the nation’s attention. As a result,
they always receive lower turnout than presidential years.
2014 Turnout (approx.): 36.3% (vs. 53.6%
for 2012)
2010: 37.8% (vs. 56.8% for 2008)
2006: 37.1% (vs. 55.3% for 2004)
As you can see, midterm turnout tends to
hover somewhere between 36 and 38%, while presidential turnout tends to be in
the 50s (and even that is kind of pathetically low).
And what about so-called “off-year”
elections? There are a handful of races that play out in odd-numbered years.
For example: Virginia and New Jersey elect their governor the year after the
presidential, while Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi elect their governor
the year after a midterm. Some notable mayoral races happen off-year as well,
including New York City and Chicago.
The
Map in 2018
For Democrats to win back the House,
they need to flip 23 more seats. This is certainly possible – but they could
win even more with a giant wave of enthusiasm.
The senate is a little more tricky.
Democrats are defending a massive 26 seats (including one special election in
Minnesota) while Republicans are defending only 9 (including a special in
Mississippi). Further, 10 of the Democratic seats are in states won by Trump,
including a few he won by double-digits. But if there is any saving grace for
Dems, it’s that the backlash to an unpopular president in a midterm cycle may
end up saving most or perhaps all of those vulnerable seats. They need to gain
only two; and if they keep all of their incumbents, that may not be too hard to
accomplish.
Here are the current prognostications
for 2018 senate races (excluding those considered mostly to be safe):
Most recently updated: September 2, 2018
Most recently updated: September 2, 2018
Likely Democrat:
Bob Menendez (NJ), Debbie
Stabenow (MI), Bob Casey (PA), Sherrod Brown (OH), Tina Smith (MN special), Tammy Baldwin (WI)
Lean Democrat:
Jon
Tester (MT), Joe Manchin (WV)
Tossup:
Bill Nelson (FL), Claire
McCaskill (MO), Joe Donnelly (IN), Dean Heller (NV), Open (AZ- Jeff Flake
Retiring)
Lean Republican:
Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Open (TN- Bob Corker Retiring),
Likely Republican:
Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS special)
